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Home / Tips and Tricks / After the debate and Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis, Biden’s electoral lead is growing

After the debate and Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis, Biden’s electoral lead is growing



New national polls, conducted both before and after President Donald Trump began treating Covid-19 at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, show Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden had a significant advantage over the president a month before election day Has.

One such poll, conducted by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, found that Biden had the biggest lead in the campaign to date, leading his rival by 14 percentage points.

This is in line with some recent polls – including a CNBC poll the day after the first presidential debate, in which Biden was 1

3 percentage points ahead – and reflects that Biden has been a poll leader for some time. It does, however, register about 6 percentage points more than the average gap between Trump and Biden.

The NBC / WSJ poll found the debate had an impact on registered voters, seeing a 6 percentage point increase in preference for Biden from a poll they completed prior to the debate.

The increase in Biden’s support in the poll is partly due to high-ranking voters, who support him by a margin of 27 percentage points (62 to 35 percent) and suburban women, who support him by a margin of 15 points (58 to 33 percent). Both groups of the population are considered key voters.

Men over 50 in particular – an important part of Trump’s 2016 base – are showing some signs of shifting their support. After the debate, this group moved from supporting Trump by a 13 point lead to supporting Biden by 1 point, which equates to a swing of at least 10 points in just a few days.

Perhaps the debate overshadows the fact that the president now has Covid-19. Poll takers are still determining how this could affect the race, but a Reuters / Ipsos poll, conducted October 2-3 after news of Trump’s diagnosis, found voters likely to drop Biden by 10 percentage points advocate.

Other national survey trackers show Biden with a constant lead, but still have that lead in the double-digit range. NBC News’ national polling average has Biden up 8.7 percentage points versus Trump and FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average shows Biden is up 8 points.

This smaller gap is also significant; Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, responded to the new polls by pointing to many polls in 2016 that indicated that the then Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was at the top with the electorate: “And now is President Trump in the White House. “

Trump’s handling of the coronavirus is on the minds of voters

The usual disclaimers apply to reading this week’s polls: polls don’t predict the future, they reflect a snapshot of a point in time, as Vox’s Li Zhou explained.

In addition, while national polls are a good indicator of sentiment, they may overlook some specifics in different swing states. And because the electoral college, not the referendum, decides on the presidency, the 2020 election will likely be decided by a handful of swing states – or even swing counties. State polls (which, in turn, as Zhou has explained, have their limits) show that in the major battlefield states, the race is much closer. For example, a CBS News poll in Ohio from September 30 through October 2 found that Biden and Trump are connected.

And of course, there could be radical changes to the polls in the four weeks between now and the elections. Nothing about this year’s campaign cycle has been normal, and the coronavirus pandemic – as well as its personal impact on the president – could change the shape of the race.

However, recent polls on the pandemic show that most Americans disagree with how Trump dealt with the coronavirus. The Reuters / Ipsos poll found that only about a third of voters believe Trump was telling the truth about the coronavirus. 55 percent said they didn’t, and 11 percent aren’t sure – and more than half of Americans, 57 percent, disapproved of his overall answer.

That poll also found that 65 percent of Americans agreed with the statement: “If President Trump had taken the coronavirus more seriously, he probably wouldn’t have been infected.”

That number included 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, according to the survey.

As questions arise about Trump’s health, how he dealt with the coronavirus – both personally and as the nation’s leader – is sure to play a role in voter decisions.


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