Two new national polls, conducted almost entirely after last week’s Republican National Convention, show that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has a high single-digit lead over President Trump.
However, an average of all national polls in the White House race shows a slight narrowing of the showdown between the former Vice President and the incumbent Republican.
According to a USA TODAY / Suffolk University poll released on Wednesday, Biden ranks Trump’s top 50-43% among registered voters across the country. The former Vice President’s seven-point advantage is less than the 12-point advantage he had in the previous USA TODAY / Suffolk University survey conducted in June. The new survey was carried out from August 28th to 31
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If the election took place today, a national poll by Grinnell College released on Wednesday shows that Biden is 49% -41% ahead of Trump among likely voters across the country. The survey was conducted by Selzer and Company on August 26-30, both during and after the Republican confab.
An average of all recent national polls in the Biden-Trump race compiled by Real Clear Politics shows that Biden is up 6.3 points (48.9% -42.6%). This is a slight decrease from the 7.8-point lead Biden held on the Real Clear Politics average (50-1% -42.3%) at the start of the GOP convention on Aug. 24.
However, the race for the White House is not based on the national referendum. If it were, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would be now president. Instead, the presidential election is a battle for states and their votes.
According to the latest poll, Biden stays ahead in most of the major battlefield states in the general election, but his edge is diminishing.
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In Florida, the largest of the major swing states, Biden has a 3.7 point lead over Trump, according to an average of the latest polls in the state compiled by Real Clear Politics. Biden rose 2.6 points in Wisconsin, 4.7 points in Pennsylvania, 3.5 points in Wisconsin, 2.2 points in Arizona and 5.3 points in Minnesota. The president has a 1 point lead in North Carolina and a 1.3 point lead in Georgia.
Four years ago, Clinton had a 4.2 point advantage over Trump that day. The race tightened and Clinton was at the top of Trump by 2% in the national referendum. But Trump narrowly outlined Clinton on the major battlefields of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, switching all four from blue to red to take on the White House.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told Fox News that – with two months to election day but some early and postal votes this month – “the national race ends with so many unknowns who still like a COVID vaccine must be determined, racial protests and the economic climate. Seven key states could determine that result. “
According to the new Grinnell College poll, Biden tops Trump at 56% to 34% for women and 64 to 31% for suburban women. With female and suburban voters in mind, over the past two weeks the president has repeatedly emphasized his approach to law and order regarding civil unrest and outbreaks of violence amid nationwide protests against police brutality against minorities and racial injustice.
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Biden also has great advantages with non-white voters and those who live in large metropolitan areas.
“Beyond the overall benefit of eight points, this survey shows a few areas on which the former Vice President is based,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer. “Mr. Biden has a broad lead with a moderate 55-33% who are a majority of the electorate; he benefits from a 10-point lead among independents who do not support any political party, 44-34%.”
The survey shows that the president has a more than 2 to 1 advantage among white men without a college degree (64-31%) and has the edge among white women without a college degree (52-43%). Trump also dominates among rural voters (58-36%) and evangelicals (63-27%).
The USA Today / Suffolk poll shows considerable skepticism as to whether the results of the presidential election can be trusted. If their candidate loses, roughly one in four voters polled say they are unwilling to accept the result as fair and accurate.
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After months of claiming that voting by mail would lead to fraud and rigged elections, the poll says 83% of Republicans are at least a little concerned that postal voting will lead to election fraud. Only a third of Democrats share these concerns.
Fifty-six percent of Republicans say they will vote in person on election day, compared to 26 percent of Democrats. The poll shows that Democrats are more than twice as likely to vote by postal vote or mail than Republicans.