A new poll in the crucial battlefield state of Pennsylvania for the general election shows that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden continues to lead President Trump – but his advantage is diminishing.
The public opinion poll shows that law and order, the President’s judicial press over the past few weeks may be a reason the Pennsylvania race is intensifying.
Monmouth University’s August 28-31 public opinion poll – entirely after last week’s Republican National Convention – shows the former Vice President tops incumbent Republican 49% to 45% of registered voters in Keystone State, with 3% support other candidates and 4% undecided.
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The race among the smaller voters, who are likely to cast a vote in the general election, is getting even closer. A model based on a slightly higher turnout than in the 2016 election puts the former Vice President over Trump between 49% and 46%. However, on a model with a lower turnout, the race is practically a tie: Biden is 48% and the President is 47%.
This is a shift from the last Monmouth University, Pennsylvania survey, conducted in early July. In the previous poll, Biden had a 12 point lead in registered voters and a 7-10 point lead on the two models for likely voters.
The new poll also shows that Biden has a positive / negative rating of 48% to 46% among Pennsylvania voters – Trump underwater has a positive / negative rating of 44% to 51%.
“This is really a customs game. The Trump campaign tries to pull a little bit of Biden support here and there. It might work, although Pennsylvania voters like the Democrats personally more, although that gap has narrowed, ”said Patrick Murray, director of the Polling Institute at Monmouth University.
On average, across all recent Pennsylvania polls conducted by Real Clear Politics, Biden is 4.7 points ahead of Trump. That’s less than a 6-point lead that Biden had in early August.
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The poll shows that a small but important segment of the electorate agrees with the president’s endorsed message that the American suburbs are threatened in the face of nationwide protests against police brutality against minorities and racial injustice. According to the survey, Biden has a solid 59% to 35% lead in women, but he’s lost ground among men. They prefer Trump by 56% -37% compared to 47% -45% in early July.
And the president has stepped up support in 10 swing counties that had the closest vote margins in the 2016 election. Biden’s 19-point lead from six weeks ago is now 2 points ahead for Trump.
Turning to voters in the suburbs, the president has repeatedly emphasized his approach to law and order over the civil unrest and outbreaks of violence amid nationwide protests against police brutality against minorities and racial injustice over the past two weeks.
“The Republican Convention has tried to sow doubt among the democratic core blocks, especially among young and urban voters. It looks like they’ve had some success with that, at least for the time being, “remarked Murray.
Pennsylvania – along with Michigan and Wisconsin – has been supported by the Democrats in presidential elections for a quarter of a century. But four years ago in all three states, Trump narrowly left Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton behind for 2016 and helped him win the White House.
Biden, who was born and spent his first 10 years in Scranton, Pennsylvania before moving to Delaware, continues to be closely associated with Keystone State. He has held several campaign events in Pennsylvania over the past two months, including a speech in Pittsburgh on Monday.
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Monmouth University surveyed 400 registered Pennsylvania voters using live operator. The overall sampling error of the survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.