In our most recent outlook on the electoral college, the Democratic presidential candidate crosses the 270 threshold for the first time this year.Add the states currently classified as solid in his camp (203 votes) and those leaning in his direction (87 votes) , results in a total of 290 votes.
From then on, it only got worse when his response to the contract with Covid-19 was to tell the country not to worry and demonstrate a brazen lack of leadership by putting his mask on a white man’s balcony House overlooking the South Lawn decreased for the whole world You see – the very move almost every scientist and expert says goes against promoting the best weapon we have right now to fight the virus.
The Trump campaign also has a significant competitive disadvantage with the Biden campaign when it comes to money that can be spent on critical television advertising in the home stretch ̵
In the meantime, the former vice president appears to have rebuilt the so-called blue wall in the Midwest that Trump broke through in 2016 to secure his victory.
Since our last look at the electoral college, there have been no fewer than eight polls that meet the reporting standards of CNN of Pennsylvania – a critical battlefield state for a candidate’s path to 270 votes. Biden didn’t have a lead of less than 5 percentage points in any of them, and his support level was never below 49%. We’re moving Pennsylvania back to Leans Democratic.
Pennsylvania was a primary target for both campaigns this cycle. Biden spent $ 48 million in Keystone State, compared to $ 21 million on the Trump effort.
When external groups are factored in, Pennsylvania spent $ 135 million on television advertising – the second highest sum of any state after Florida.
Aside from Biden’s overwhelming strength with women, independents, college graduates, and non-whites, he continues to compete with the president among men, whites and seniors, undermining the key advantages Trump had over these groups in 2016.
On the map, that means more than just pulling Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin back into their democratic positions after Trump narrowly won them four years ago. It means a state like Iowa, which Trump won by nearly 10 percentage points, is within reach for Biden. That’s why we put this one from Leans Republican in the status of a pure battlefield.
The Trump campaign this week canceled its roughly $ 800,000 ad reservation in Iowa, according to ad tracking firm CMAG. It is the third straight week that the president’s campaign has gone without television commercials in Hawkeye state.
While the Trump campaign goes off the air in Iowa, the Biden campaign there is spending $ 565,000 this week.
More than $ 2 million has been reserved in the state for both campaigns through election day. And Preserve America, the Trump-backing super PAC, has reserved an additional $ 2 million.
As always, we base this outlook on public and private polls, the strategic bets that the tens of millions of dollars in ad campaigns make, with Trump and Biden and their proxies spending most of their virtual and personal time at the highest levels, and talking to state and national political activists, elected officials and advisers from both campaigns.
In this current outlook, we’ve also moved the only ballot given to the winner of the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District in the direction of Biden. Both Republicans and Democrats point to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District as the truly more competitive of these two constituencies battles.
For his path to 270 electoral votes, Trump starts with a solid base of 125 from 20 states, which are most likely undisputed. When you combine that solid state base with the additional 38 Texas votes currently leaning in his direction, that adds up to a total of 163 Trump votes – 107 away from re-election.
That gives us five states and one congressional district with a total of 85 votes currently on the map: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina, and Ohio.
If Trump is to seek a successful re-election, he has to start by running the table with everyone and then still find at least 22 electoral votes that are currently leaning towards Biden and bring them back into his group.
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (125 in total)
Texas (38) (38 total)
Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18) (85 total)
Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), 2nd Congressional District Nebraska (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10) (87 ) total)
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14) , New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12) (203 in total)