Republicans are increasingly concerned about this President TrumpDonald John TrumpNorth Korea unveils large ICBM at military parade Trump is no longer seen as a risk for transmitting COVID-19, the doctor says. New ad from the Trump campaign contains Fauci MOREThe decline in the polls following his COVID-1
The presidential campaign has quickly grown to be one of the most tumultuous in modern history, but there is more than enough turmoil and uncertainty to get around in the battle of both parties for control of the Senate.
One of the main problems facing Republicans in the Senate is Trump’s monetary crisis, which has forced him to cut back on advertising in key battlefield states at a time when Senate Democratic challengers are expected to significantly overtake the GOP incumbents on their way to the final stages.
Another challenge for Republicans is the growing battlefield map, where traditionally red states like Alaska, Kansas, and South Carolina become more competitive as Democratic incumbents in Michigan and New Hampshire build comfortable leads.
Republicans are defending 23 seats while Democrats only need to protect 12.
A GOP senator, who asked for anonymity to speak freely about the likelihood of Republicans losing the majority, said Trump’s bad numbers are a serious headwind.
Trump “is not doing so well” in some states that he won by hand four years ago, the legislature said: “So we are worried now.”
Senate Republicans were shocked by Trump’s performance in the first debate, where he kept interrupting the moderator Chris WallaceChristopher (Chris) WallaceBob Dole Claims Not Helping Republicans Support the Debate Commission Trump Debate Commission Co-Chair: “No Evidence at All” Trump tested negative Trump calls for two hours on Rush Limbaugh’s show and democratic candidate Joe BidenJoe BidenDemocratic poll shows neck-to-neck brewing at Florida House district in Nebraska district this November could prove crucial for Biden. Bring MORE home black men and refused to condemn white supremacists.
Another bomb came a few days later when Trump announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19. As of Thursday, more than 30 White House staff and people who came in contact with them had also tested positive.
The debate power combined with Trump’s handling of his own COVID-19 diagnosis enabled Biden to extend his lead over the president.
Biden’s lead rose from 6 percentage points on the day of the first presidential debate to almost 9 points on Friday RealClearPolitics Average of national survey data. His lead also increased from just 1 point in Florida to nearly 4 points, from 5 points to 7 points in Michigan, and from 6 points to 7 points in Pennsylvania.
A poll by Quinnipiac University in Iowa October 1-5 found that Biden, in the state of Hawkeye, is 5 points ahead.
Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist, said the president’s diagnosis of COVID-19 had serious political implications.
“Of course that’s the only problem he doesn’t want to talk about. He went out of his way from day one to say it’s not a problem, it’s a flu, it’s a joke, it will go away, there will be a miracle. And suddenly it came home to sleep, ”said Jarding.
“There is nothing worse that could have happened to this president who was trying to convince America that he did a great job, but he couldn’t even do a great job in his own house,” he said.
Trump’s COVID diagnosis also largely outpaced his Supreme Court appointment of Judge Amy Coney Barrett, which Senate Republicans gathered around late September in hopes of a boost on the 2020 campaign’s home stretch.
It is. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSunday Shows Preview: Trump, Top Republicans Recover From COVID-19; Stimulus Bill Suspended Democrats Warn Voters: Don’t Get Smug The Memo: Trump Is Looking For A Path To Comeback MORE (R-Texas) said on Friday that Trump could win re-election by a “big margin,” but warned that Republican candidates could win too extinguished in a “bloodbath”.
“I’m concerned. It’s fleeting, it’s very fleeting,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Cruz added that Republicans “could see a fantastic election if voters are optimistic”. But if “people are angry and have given up hope,” then “it could be a Watergate-sized bloodbath.”
In Montana, a Trump state with 20 points in 2016, President Biden leads Biden with 9 points, a drop that is causing GOP nervousness over Sen’s fate. Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David Daines Republican fears grow over rising democratic tide GOP fear grows over Trump’s political roller coaster GOP struggles to MORE defend Trump’s ObamaCare lawsuit (R-Mont.) In his tough race against the government. Steve BullockSteve BullockOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Pendley Says Court Ruling Ousting Him From BLM “No Impact” Court Trashing Obama-Era Rule Targeting Methane Leaks From Public Land Wells, The Government Is Suing For It No longer allowed polluters to pay for environmental projects. Pendley said the court’s decision to oust him from the BLM had no effect (D).
In South Carolina, which Trump was 14 points ahead of four years ago, the president is just 5 points ahead of Biden. That’s a problem for Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamGraham says SC folks can go anywhere in the state but “have to be conservative, not liberal”. Sunday preview shows: Trump, top Republicans recover from COVID-19; Stimulus Bill remains in the balance Serious: “It would be wise” if the Senate Judiciary Committee were tested for COVID-19 MORE (RS.C.), who is in the toughest re-election campaign of his career.
The non-partisan Cooking political report Last week, the race in South Carolina was postponed from the “lean Republican” to the more unsafe “posing”.
Trump’s declining popularity in Texas worries Republicans there more. After winning the state with 9 points in 2016, Trump only has a lead of 1.5 points, according to an average determined by FiveThirtyEight.com.
It is. John CornynJohn CornynOvernight Health Care: Trump Discharged From Hospital | Doctor Doesn’t Answer Key Questions CDC says viruses can spread through airborne transmission. The Hill’s Campaign Report: Trump Leaves Walter Reed l Post-Debate Polls Show Biden Builds A Big Head Start On Coronavirus Concerns Ahead Of The VP Debate Cornyn: Trump Lets Coronavirus MORE Down (R) is now facing a daunting challenge from Democratic nominee and Air Force veteran MJ Hegar, who has announced that it will raise more than $ 13.5 million in the third quarter, almost eight times the amount it raised in the second quarter. Cornyn said Hegar “essentially wiped out” his cash advantage.
Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, said Trump’s actions in the final weeks of the campaign season will be a key factor in deciding who will control the Senate next year.
He said the battle for the Senate majority was “directly tied to the race of the president. If Trump wins their state, it is very, very likely that they will win their campaign too. “
“If Trump loses their condition, they will likely lose too,” added O’Connell, noting that Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsConservative Group Launches .3M Ad Purchase To Boost Barrett’s SCOTUS Nomination GOP Promises Quick Confirmation Of Trump’s Supreme Court Decision Amid Turonavirus Turmoil Hickenlooper Raises .6M For Colorado Senate Offer MORE (R-Maine), which has built a reputation for independence in Washington over decades, is the only exception to this rule.
“The only person on their own little island is Susan Collins,” he said.
Collins, who has been behind in the polls for months, got a lot of good news last week when a Bangor Daily News / Digital Research poll found she is only 1 point behind her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.
A poll by Quinnipiac University in mid-September found that Collins was up to 12 points behind.
The clear trend of Gideon at the top remains unbroken, emphasize the Senate Democrats.
Senate Republican strategists admit the environment has become even more challenging for their candidates.
“A month ago it was a completely different world,” admitted a GOP official, who said it was “incredibly challenging” to predict what will happen on election day, given “how tumultuous the cycle has been”.
The officially predicted Republicans would regain momentum when the Supreme Court confirmation hearings begin this week and attention is turned back to Barrett, who is almost unanimously supported at the Senate GOP conference and a favorite of conservative and evangelical activists .
Democrats have their own headaches too.
The largest is in North Carolina, where Democrat Cal Cunningham, who is married with two teenage children, apologized last week for an affair with a counselor in California this summer.
Before these revelations, Democrats were increasingly confident of defeating Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisErnst: “It would be wise” if the Senate Justice Committee were to be tested for COVID-19. The Hill’s Campaign Report: Trump Campaigns On Rush Limbaugh Show Democrats Are Questioning Trump’s Mental Fitness Questions About The Texting Scandal MORE (R) saw it as the most likely fourth seat pickup they’d need to turn the Senate over. Cunningham reported raising a staggering $ 28.3 million in the third quarter before the matter became known.
Now some handicappers are thinking of Iowa, where Democrat Theresa Greenfield has a small but consistent lead over Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstErnst: “It would be wise” if the Senate Judicial Committee were to test for COVID-19 Trump fuels and thwart the COVID-19 relief talks. The Hill’s Campaign Report: A Debate About Debate | Wisconsin postal votes must be received by November 3rd. Who Won the VP Debate on Wednesday? MORE (R-Iowa) is a better chance for Democrats than North Carolina.
“Cal Cunningham is throwing a bit of a curveball here because many of us considered it a must-see for the Democrats, and it was the logical fourth place after Maine, Arizona and Colorado,” said Kyle Kondik, a political scientist at the University of’s Center for Politics Virginia.
Kondik said “it’s a setback for Democrats” and that Iowa is likely a better Democratic pickup opportunity after the Cunningham News.
Senate Republicans control 53 seats, and Senator Doug Jones (D-Ala.), Who does poorly on the polls, is set to lose in November. That means Democrats have to win at least four Republican-held seats and the White House to win back the majority. If Biden lost to Trump, the Democrats would have to take five GOP seats.