The President’s Campaign has long treated the state that Trump is now calling home a top priority, and his Consultants remain confident in its chances given the high turnout in 2016 and 2018, which left Republicans with tight margins in nationwide competitions.
“Voting begins in Florida on September 24th, so the need to get real capital into this state quickly is urgent,” said Bloomberg advisor Kevin Sheekey. “Mike believes that investing in Florida can leverage campaign resources and other democratic resources in other states, particularly in the state of Pennsylvania.”
The last Republican to win the White House without Florida was Calvin Coolidge in 1924, and a loss of the state’s 29 votes would radically cut Trump’s path to re-election. With Florida in his column, Biden could take on the presidency by holding every state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and winning any of the following states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, all of which Biden leads in current public poll averages .
In response to Florida’s commitment, Trump attacked Bloomberg Sunday morning, mocking his performance in the primary Democratic debates earlier this year. “I thought Mini Mike was done with Democratic politics,” Trump wrote on Twitter.
“Save NYC instead,” he added.
Florida polls have narrowed in recent weeks, and the Cook Political Report recently moved the state from Lean Democrat to Toss Up. An average of the Washington Post public polls since August shows the state’s Biden is up 1 percentage point, well within the margin of error. While he was doing better than previous Democratic candidates Biden struggles with whites and seniors among the state’s Latino population. Republicans have devoted tremendous resources to campaigning across multiple election cycles.
“If you are able to ensure that you are able to speak directly to all of these different communities and where they live, then you will be well on the way to securing states for Biden in this election,” said Rep. Ted Deutch (D. -Fla.) Said. “I’m glad Mike Bloomberg saw this and is ready to make an investment to ensure that each of these communities understands the importance of this choice.”
Spending is mainly focused on television and digital advertising in English and Spanish.
Bloomberg’s goal is to get an early vote so that a Pro-Biden result can be seen soon after the polls are completed. Florida, unlike other swing states, reports almost all of the early ballots shortly thereafter The voting ends.
Democrats and Republicans have feared that early results will shape public perception of who will ultimately win the election. In many states, the initial reported votes are more Republican, but the numbers get more democratic over time as more mail-in and early votes are added to the balance sheet.
“It would lie to what we expect as Trump’s election night message that Democrats steal the elections because unlike other battlefield states, Florida counts its postal votes on or until election day,” said Bloomberg advisor Howard Wolfson. “We think Florida is incredibly close, but winnable.”
A recent report from Hawkfish, a Bloomberg-funded voter data firm, predicted that even in a scenario where Biden wins 54 percent of the final vote, partisan differences in preference for email voting could result in an initial count, which shows Trump wins by 55 percent. The ballot papers were tabulated on November 3rd at the national level. In public polls, Republican voters have reported far less interest in absentee voting or early voting than Democrats.
A prominent Florida Democratic adviser, unaware of Bloomberg’s decision, said Saturday that Democratic external groups had mainly focused on Midwestern states because of the prohibitive cost of advertising in Florida. This person, On condition of anonymity to discuss strategy, it would take an estimated $ 15-20 million to shift Biden’s numbers significantly among Latinos, and $ 60-70 million to be on national TV in the next 51 days and to have a real impact.
Between March 24 and September 11, the Biden campaign and Democratic groups outperformed Trump and Republican groups in the state on television according to a Democratic tracking firm with a margin of $ 42 million to $ 32 million. However, future reservations suggest the gap will narrow, in part due to increased investment by wealthy Trump supporters who operate independently of his campaign.
Preserve America, a new super PAC Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is expected to spend $ 30 million this month in seven states, including Florida. Further editions are expected to be announced soon. The group did not disclose their donors.
Bloomberg consultants described the spending plan as “nine digits” and declined to say how much more than $ 100 million Bloomberg could be willing, if any. They said Bloomberg is confident its engagement will push other wealthy Democratic donors to further open their paperbacks to other states in the last months of the campaign. Bloomberg’s money is spent through Independence USA, its own super-PAC, and other democratic groups.
Between November and March, Bloomberg spent more than $ 1 billion on its own failed Democratic nomination bid, including about $ 275 million on ads criticizing Trump. When he supported Joe Biden, he announced that he would “Work on making him the next President of the United States.” On the final night of the Democratic Convention that year, Bloomberg then received a top notch slot.
But what Bloomberg, valued at over $ 50 billion, was planning to do with its money remains a major source of tension among Democratic strategists. After Bloomberg flooded the accounts of the local and state Democratic Party with money during his campaign, he transferred around $ 20 million in cash and prepaid office rents to the National Democratic Committee. In doing so, he used a provision in the Campaign Funding Act that allows candidates to donate any leftover money. He also distributed his money in favor of state and local democratic candidates.
A group he co-funded, Everytown for Gun Safety, has pledged to spend $ 60 million on elections this cycle, and he has pledged an additional $ 60 million to maintain or strengthen the majority in the Democratic House. Swing Left, a group focused on winning state legislative seats, and Fair Fight, an election protection measure led by former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, have also received millions. Bloomberg has yet to announce spending on the election of a Democratic Senate after allocating $ 20 million to the effort in 2018.
The former New York City Mayor, a former Republican and independent who changed his voter registration to Democratic in 2018, has given Hawkfish an additional $ 35 million to help improve voter alignment with independent groups on the Democratic side. The group combines voter data with expensive consumer data to better assist Democrats in targeting and choosing voters.
Through Hawkfish, Bloomberg has also funded other multi-million dollar standalone programs, including efforts by Unite the Country, a pro-biden super PAC, to launch a digital campaign for 400,000 veterans in battlefield states like Pennsylvania and Florida, according to advisors .
A separate Hawkfish program with a nonprofit called the Collective Education Fund targets digital advertising for color communities, focusing on major cities in key states such as Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Detroit.
“The bottom line is, if you have additional resources, you can consolidate your constituents and then communicate with those who for whatever reason are still on the fence,” said Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.). “One hundred million can do just that.”