President TrumpDonald John TrumpMelania Trump used a private email account in the White House, says ex-boyfriend, Trump repeats the drug test call before the debates, claiming Biden is on some kind of improvement. How Markey beat a Kennedy MORE has gained 9 points on Joe Biden Pennsylvania has established a statistical link with the Democratic presidential candidate in a major battlefield state in the past six weeks, according to a new poll.
The latest Monmouth University poll found that Biden is 49 percent and Trump 45 percent of all registered voters in the state. This is within the poll’s 4.9 point margin of error and is a far closer race than Monmouth in July, when Biden led 53 to 40 among the registered voters.
The race is even closer among the likely voters.
If Monmouth predicts a high turnout election, Biden leads Trump 49-46. In a lower turnout model, Biden’s lead is only 1 point at 48 to 47. In July, Biden led with 10 points on the high turnout model and 7 points on the low turnout model.
“This is really a customs game,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “The Trump campaign tries to pull a little bit of Biden support here and there. It could work although Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrats more, although that gap has narrowed. “
The race has intensified as the men in the state swung wildly in Trump’s favor. The president leads the men by 19 points compared to his 2-point advantage in July.
The race has tightened even with voters under 50, from a 29-point advantage for Biden to a 9-point advantage in July.
Biden leads with 24 points for women and 11 points for seniors. He is 60 points ahead of the colored, although the number of undecided voters here has risen from 3 to 9 percent since July.
“The Republican Convention has tried to sow some doubts among the Democratic core blocs, especially among young and urban voters,” Murray said. “It looks like they’ve had some success with it, at least for now.”
Biden has traveled to Pennsylvania, not far from his home in Delaware, more than any other state since the coronavirus lockdown began. Earlier this week, Biden traveled to Pittsburgh to deliver a speech accusing Trump of fueling racist unrest in the country.
A majority of Pennsylvanians, 53 percent, say they trust Biden on racial relations, compared with 42 percent for Trump.
Fifty-two percent say they are not concerned about violent protests threatening the suburbs. However, 39 percent of Independents and 30 percent of Democrats say people moving into their neighborhood and bringing crime and lower property values are at least a minor problem.
“About one in six Democrats who actually approves the GOP’s warning of a threat to the suburbs says they will vote for Trump,” said Murray. “Now this group is a relatively small part of the total electorate, but is still big enough to make a difference in a very close race.”
Biden’s favoritism rating is 48 percent positive and 46 percent negative in the survey, with 37 percent of Pennsylvanians viewing him as very unfavorable. In July, 32 percent had a very poor view of Biden.
Trump’s favoritism rating is 44 positive and 51 negative, with 45 percent viewing him as very unfavorable. In July, 47 percent had a very unfavorable view of Trump.
Monmouth University’s poll of 400 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted August 28 through August 28. 31 and has an error rate of 4.9 percentage points.