In a new series of swing state polls released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in several key states, with just 51 days to go to the November.
In particular, a September 8-11 poll by the New York Times / Siena College shows that Biden maintains his lead with likely voters in four major states: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Likewise, a CBS News / YouGov poll conducted September 9-11 gives the former vice president a head start among likely voters in Minnesota and Arizona.
This time the GOP stated that they are playing in Minnesota to win. “I almost won Minnesota in 2016,” Trump tweeted last year. “In 2020 I’ll win the state because America hates anti-Semitic MP Omar and Minnesota is having the best fiscal year ever!” His campaign followed that uproar with a $ 14 million advertising spurt in the state, which was larger than her purchases in the Swig states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, polls by the New York Times and the CBS seem to give Trump’s ambitions in Minnesota some cold water: While Clinton scored a narrow win of less than 2 percent in 2016, both the New York Times and the CBS show that Biden Trump beat 9 Percent leads points.
The same polls suggest that Trump is in danger of ceding Arizona and Wisconsin to Biden in November. CBS reports that Biden leads Trump just under 3 percentage points in Arizona, and Biden is up 5 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to the New York Times poll.
In Nevada, where Trump held a rally on Saturday, Biden also has a small 4 percentage point lead – but Chuck Rocha, former Bernie Sanders campaign advisor, says Democrats need to take the state more seriously or that could change:
“What is correctly underreported? [now] is the problem in Nevada, ”said Rocha. “The entire culinary union is dismissed. The whole [Las Vegas] Strip is mostly shut down. So there is astronomical unemployment there. “
Rocha said the Democrats are not sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has hit the area – and that has hit Latinx voters particularly hard. In order to win the state, Biden must come up with a clear plan of how his political vision will help those who are currently in need of work and income.
According to NBC News, the Trump campaign doesn’t see Nevada as safe for Biden either. Indeed, Trump campaign officials see Nevada as part of an “alternate path” to gaining 270 votes if the president loses some of the states that gave him the victory in 2016.
New Hampshire, a 2016 squeaker that beat Clinton by only three-tenths of a percent, is also part of this “alternate route” strategy. The New York Times / Siena College poll shows Biden has a 3 percentage point lead, but Trump’s goal is to hold rallies in the state that has a Republican governor soon after the Republican National Convention concluded last month .
Overall, these polls contain good news for Biden – but a lot when his leads, like those in New Hampshire and Arizona, are tight, suggesting the president still has room to change his mind.
A mostly stable race
Beyond the details of a poll, the 2020 presidential race poll was largely stable. Nationally, Biden leads Trump with an average of 7.3 percentage points and has maintained a constant lead in key swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. These latest results are in line with these ongoing trends.
And Biden’s national average is also in line with a recent Fox News poll of likely voters that shows Biden has a slightly smaller lead over Trump – just 5 percentage points – but a solid advantage on most issues including racial inequality, pandemic, healthcare who have favourited Courts, Immigration and Police. Only in economic terms, voters were likely to have more confidence in Trump, 5 percentage points ahead.
One possible reason for the consistency of the polls is that polls have shown there are fewer undecided voters than in 2016. Only 13 percent of registered voters either haven’t made a decision or are still open to changing their minds, according to CNN Quinnipiac University earlier this month found that only 3 percent of likely voters were undecided.
That’s probably not good news for Trump, who got along well with the undecided voters in 2016 but this time has far more reason to make up with a smaller pool of undecided. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also a bit more popular than Clinton in 2016, while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump.
Of course, polls are not prophecies. As my colleague Li Zhou said earlier, polls only really capture “the public mood at a given moment,” and things may change, especially with three presidential debates coming up. And since you only have to win the electoral college and not the referendum, a candidate who wins even part of a group that traditionally voted for his rival could have an overwhelming effect on the results.
However, at this particular moment, Biden appears to have a strong position ahead of the November election.
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