For now, it looks like President Trump came back a bit after hitting his rock bottom.
The president has been at a rock bottom against former Vice President Joe Biden, but last month the landscape has tightened a bit, according to the latest analysis from NPR Electoral College, although Biden still has a head start.
The biggest change is that in the month and a half since our last analysis, Florida has tightened and is back in the “pose” category. This means that he, including states leaning towards Biden, is just below the 270-vote threshold required to win the presidency. He currently has an advantage of 268 to 1
What we changed
Florida from Lean D to Toss Up
Nebraska’s 2nd district from Lean R to Toss Up
Virginia from Lean D to Likely D.
New Mexico from Lean D to Likely D.
We’ve only made a few changes, but one important one: Florida is returning to its traditional location as a throwing state. While Biden maintains a slight lead there, Trump has gained around 4 percentage points in the survey averages since the end of July.
A new poll from Monmouth University in Florida found that Biden scored 5 points among registered voters, and an NBC / Marist poll there stalled the race at 48% per person among likely voters.
The polls showed conflicting results among Latinos. Monmouth had Biden by a large margin among Latinos but still lagged behind what Hillary Clinton had achieved with the group in 2016. This is also reflected locally, as Democrats there are concerned about being able to register enough Latino voters amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Both polls showed that Trump and Biden divide seniors. This is bad news for Trump as he won it by a wide margin in Florida in 2016. This is something Republicans are concerned about – not just in the presidential election, but also in the voting.
Biden, who scores below average among Latinos but above average among voters aged 65 and over, was observed throughout this year. How these unpredictable shifts will play out is unclear and could mean some volatility that voters will turn out to be.
Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images
Nebraska’s 2nd district
Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in 2016 with 2 points. Second lady Karen Pence and Lara Trump, wife of Trump’s son Eric, were at a loss for the president in this district in the Omaha region last month. Democratic parts of the district have been registering Democrats faster than Republicans in right-wing areas since 2016. And the congress race there is neck to neck right now.
Virginia and New Mexico
Virginia demographics remain democratic. In a 2016 shift, there are now nearly as many whites with a college degree in the state as there are without, as the population of Asian Americans continues to grow as well. New Mexico has also developed democratically. In 2016, 40% of voters in the state were Latino, according to polls on the exit.
In both states, Biden has a double-digit lead on average in the polls.
What we haven’t changed
Arizona remains toss up, but Biden has an advantage
Biden has been the leader in Arizona since March, but his lead is still pretty slim. There weren’t many good polls, despite Biden scooping 9 points out of likely voters in a Fox News poll. If other surveys show similar results, it may be a status that is being moved to the Lean D column.
In Georgia, Trump and Biden change positions
Not much has changed in Georgia. The state remains close. Biden was narrowly ahead in mid-July, but now Trump is ahead and returning to where it was earlier in the year.
Iowa remains as Lean R.
Iowa has, on average, pushed back a few points in Trump’s favor, even though Trump and Biden are within 2 points of each other. While the polls are pointing to a statistical tie, Trump won here, and it’s a state with a large white population without a college degree, which gives Trump an edge for the time being.
Ethan Miller / Getty Images
Ohio stays Toss Up, but we’re watching
Ohio didn’t have a lot of polls, but Trump has gained about 4 points in polls in the past few months, which gave him very little advantage. Trump won it in 2016, and given its high number of whites without a college degree, Ohio remains a state where Trump may have an advantage.
Pennsylvania remains as Lean D.
The average of the polls shows that the race has tightened by a few points, but Biden is still ahead. And better surveys have shown greater scope than average. The tightening is something to watch to see if Trump makes further progress over the next few weeks.
Texas remains Lean R.
Trump and Biden are statistically tied, according to polls in Texas. And Biden continues to do better than Clinton in 2016. However, the state hasn’t had many good polls this cycle. No Democrat has won the state in a presidential election since 1976. and Texas has not elected a Democrat to state office since 1994. Let’s see where the race is in a couple of weeks with better polls.
Wisconsin remains Toss Up
At the moment this state may be a tip for Biden, according to polls, but a poll by the Marquette Law School came up with an interesting finding that should worry the Democrats: Biden was up 6 points among registered voters, but up among likely voters. that shrank to 4 points. For all the volatility of the state, its voting performance so far (Trump has narrowly won him) and the fact that he has one of the highest white, non-university-educated populations in the swing states, he currently remains in the category of toss-ups.
Other places to see
Kansas, Montana and South Carolina
Let’s be clear: these are all still places Trump is likely to win, but it’s noteworthy that in all three countries, Trump’s lead is single-digit average polls.
For more information on our methodology and possible scenarios for the path to victory for Biden and Trump, please visit Check out our first June electoral college analysis.