“We’re sounding the alarm and saying this is a very real possibility that election night data will show an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Josh Mendelsohn, group executive director, Hawkfish, told Axios on HBO. “The company’s survey of registered voters found that twice as many were planning to cast a ballot in the mail than ever before, and that they were mostly Biden supporters.
A Trump campaign spokeswoman Thea McDonald described Democrats’ concern about the prematurely victorious president as “an unfounded conspiracy theory,” adding, “President Trump and his campaign are fighting for a free, fair and transparent election, in which every valid ballot counts ̵
The president has raged against postal voting all year, tweeting in May that “there is NO WAY (ZERO!) That mail-in ballots will be anything but materially fraudulent.”
With Mr. Trump demonizing postal ballot papers, many of his supporters do not plan to use them.
A national poll for the NBC / Wall Street Journal last month found that nearly half – 47 percent – of Mr Biden’s supporters planned to send in their votes, compared with two-thirds of Trump supporters – 66 percent – who planned to go in person vote election day.
In some states the discrepancy is even greater. A recent poll by Marquette Law School in Wisconsin, another swing state, found that Mr Biden was favored by 67 percentage points among voters planning a postal vote. Among those who wanted to vote on election day, Mr Trump led with 41 points.
Mr Trump himself casts his own Florida ballots by postal vote. He has made a distinction between “good” postal ballot papers and “bad” postal ballot papers, but there is no significant difference. Its ultimate destination appears to be certain states – including California, New Jersey, and Utah this year – where postal ballot papers are sent to all active registered voters, not just ballot application forms. Thirty-four states allow all voters to use a postal ballot with no excuse to return or drop it off.
Campaign experts say that postal voting or postal voting is potentially more prone to fraud than personal voting, but that states with a history of postal voting have only a tiny number of cases. Large scale cheating that could swing a tight race would be easy to spot.