Four years after President Donald Trump was knocked down by Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade County, a Bendixen poll showed he increased his chances of winning in his must-see home state on November 3rd by increasing his standing in Florida’s most populous county & Amandi International and the Miami Herald.
The poll of 500 likely Miami-Dade voters, released on Tuesday, found that Trump in Miami-Dade, where Democrats typically need to increase the score to compete in statewide races, is way behind Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by 38% to 55 % remains.
In 2016, he lost Miami-Dade to Hillary Clinton by 30 points – about 290,000 votes – but won the state with 1.2% of the total vote.
“If you’re the Biden campaign and you’re looking at these numbers, I think there’s reason to pause,” said Fernand Amandi, the Miami-based pollster and Democratic strategist behind the poll. “If Biden underperforms in one of its strongest counties – and is certainly the largest democratic county in the state of Florida – it could jeopardize its chances of winning in Florida unless there is a massive exodus of white voters from Trump in other parts of the state. “
Bendixen & Amandi’s September 1-4 poll was not bad news for the former vice president. Biden led Trump, 51% to 33% among independent Miami-Dade County’s voters and 48% to 44% among white voters. Biden also won 16% of the Republicans.
However, the poll found that the former Vice President split Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump being 47% and Biden 46%. These numbers are based on smaller query subsets with greater error rates – are driven by Trump’s increased support under Conservative Cuban Americans who supported Trump over Biden in the poll with a tough 38 points. Eight years ago, these voters were roughly dividing their votes between Republican candidate Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.
“Democrats may leave Cuban votes they won in the past on the table, which could make a difference in a state as narrow as Florida,” said Amandi, whose company produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.
The poll comes as Trump and Biden make the final round to win Florida, where most public statewide polls show Biden has a small head start.
Latino voters have become a major swing voting block in the recent election. Two years ago, the margins among Puerto Ricans in central Florida and Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade helped run razor-sharp elections in favor of Republicans in races for governor and Senate.
Since then, several polls have found the Democratic candidate struggling to match Clinton’s 2016 numbers among Florida Latinos. A poll of 1,000 Hispanic voters in Florida published last week by Democratic Latino research firm Equis Research found that Biden has a 16-point lead among registered Hispanic voters nationwide. Polls from 2016 found Clinton Florida Hispanics won by 27 points.
Trump’s gains among Miami-Dade Hispanic voters are in large part due to his success in attracting Cuban Americans, who remained somewhat suspicious of him in 2016 after his primary loss to Miami’s Cuban-American Senator Marco Rubio. Since becoming president, Trump has made several visits to Miami to discuss socialism, including his 2017 trip to Little Havana to sign a presidential memo tightening the federal government’s stance on the communist government of Cuba. He also chose Miami to launch his coalition for the Latinos for Trump campaign, with Florida’s Cuban-American Governor Jeanette Nuñez as co-chair.
Mercedes Schlapp, a Cuban American from Miami and senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said she was “not surprised” by the popularity of Trump’s “pro-worker, anti-socialism record”. She described Biden’s campaign as “unrestricted” Rice with mango ” – a difficult situation – “left politics and alliances” with politicians like the democratic-socialist US Senator Bernie Sanders.
“With an agenda like this, it’s no wonder that so many Cuban Americans, Colombians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans reject his candidacy for a Trojan horse,” said Schlapp.
Biden has since been criticized for doing too little to attract Florida Latinos. But his campaign has just bolstered the stable of Hispanic consultants in Florida, running a Spanish-language digital ad starring Puerto Rican trap singer Bad Bunny and television commercials in the last few weeks criticizing Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, among other things. Democrats have also consistently called Trump “leader, ”A term used to describe strong Latin American men.
Biden recently interviewed Spanish-language television in Miami, as did his runmate U.S. Senator Kamala Harris, who will be in Miami on Thursday for a personal campaign event for Biden.
“Joe Biden stands ready to empower Hispanic communities to reach their full potential, whether by fighting for the success of our small businesses or by ensuring access to quality, affordable health care,” said Biden spokesman Kevin Muñoz in a Explanation. “As Hispanic voters continue to rely more on this race, their support for Joe Biden will continue to grow.”
Biden likely doesn’t have to match Clinton’s Miami-Dade numbers to win Florida, as there is evidence that Trump’s support has waned elsewhere in the state. But stronger support among Cuban-American citizens would help, and Amandi said Trump seemed to outsmart Biden to attract Cuban-American voters in Miami.
Amandi also said the poll results that two-thirds of all respondents who conducted their interviews in Spanish support Trump suggest that Biden “has not yet successfully advocated” that Hispanic voters support him.
“There’s still time,” said Amandi. “But the idea that you would like to start with less support than in previous cycles in a county that will be instrumental in the Democrats’ chances of taking Florida is a cause for concern, I believe.”