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Trump leads Biden in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI



U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden answers questions from reporters following a speech on the impact of the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic during a performance in Wilmington, Delaware, Sept. 4 on the US economy. 2020.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden will lead President Donald Trump in six swing states in 2020 as the Republican National Convention has barely changed in the race for the White House, according to a new poll by CNBC / Change Research.

In Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the former vice president has a 49% to 45% lead over the incumbent Republican, according to the poll released Wednesday. It̵

7;s comparable to a 49% to 46% lead that Biden conducted in a poll two weeks ago after the Democratic National Convention but before the GOP nomination events.

Biden has at least a narrow lead in all six states, which will play a major role in deciding who will win the White House on November 3rd. Here is the race in all of these states, and how has it changed in the last poll:

  • Arizona: Biden 49%, Trump 45% (was Biden 49%, Trump 47%)
  • Florida: Biden 49%, Trump 46% (unchanged)
  • Michigan: Biden 49%, Trump 43% (was Biden 50%, Trump 44%)
  • North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47% (was Biden 48%, Trump 47%)
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46% (was Biden 49%, Trump 46%)
  • Wisconsin: Biden 50%, Trump 44% (was Biden 49%, Trump 44%)

The poll, conducted Friday through Sunday, polled 4,143 likely voters in the six states and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.

It depicts a race that has barely changed itself at a time when presidential candidates can see a temporary bump after flooding voters on their nomination conventions. Though Biden’s lead in both national and swing state averages has declined from highs during the worst coronavirus pandemic in June and July, polls by CNBC / Change Research indicate that the president’s race has been through in recent weeks the events remained largely unchanged.

The poll, released on Wednesday, found that swing state voters’ views of Trump and Biden have not changed much in the past two weeks. This week, 45% of respondents said they were positive about Trump, up from 52% who said they were unfavorable. Compared to a favorable to unfavorable spread of 46% to 51% two weeks ago.

Opinions about Biden didn’t budge at all. In Wednesday’s poll, 45% of likely voters said they had a positive view of the Democratic candidate, while 49% said they had unfavorable feelings about him. The numbers were the same two weeks ago.

Respondents were asked to select the country’s top three problems. The most common choice was the economy, jobs, and cost of living, selected by 43% of the likely voters, followed by political corruption at 38%. Another 35% of respondents chose Covid-19, followed by law and order with 29% and racism and discrimination with 27%.

The big parties have drastically different views on the most important issues. 61% of Democrats voted for Covid-19 and 51% for racism and discrimination. But among GOP voters, 58% voted for law and order – a common rhetorical Trump used to criticize protests against police brutality and racism – and 53% voted for the economy, jobs and the cost of living.

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