“We’ve been down to our lowest point recently in early September, about 30,000 to 35,000 new cases a day. Now we’re back to (about) 50,000 new cases a day. And it’s going to keep increasing,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said Tuesday.
“This is the fall / winter flood that everyone was worried about. And now it’s happening. And it’s happening especially in the northern Midwest, and the northern states are being hit very hard – Wisconsin, Montana, the Dakotas. But it will. ” be national soon enough. ”
For the whole country, test positivity averaged 5.1
“You want to see (the rates) less than 3%, ideally 1% or less,” Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases, said at a College of American Pathologists event.
“We are seeing a number of states going well beyond what is often – in fact always – a high prediction of recurrence of cases that we historically know will lead to increases in hospitalizations and, ultimately, increases in cause deaths, “he said.
In Denver, recent case numbers are “just as high as they were at the height of the pandemic in May,” Mayor Michael Hancock said Monday.
He said hospital stays have also risen sharply and residents could face stricter Covid-19 restrictions if the numbers continue to rise.
“This winter – this November, December, January, February – could be the worst time of our epidemic,” Hotez said. “Get ready to squat.”
How overwhelmed hospitals can affect all patients
As we saw during this pandemic, fluctuations in new Covid-19 cases can lead to increased hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks that follow.
At least 10 states have reported record hospital stays with Covid-19 since Friday, according to the COVID Tracking Project. Five of them – Arkansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin – reported records Monday.
“Hospitals could be overwhelmed again,” said emergency physician Dr. Leana Wen. “And then we’re not just talking about patients with coronavirus who may be in trouble. We are also talking about other patients who may have had heart attacks, strokes and car accidents and find a situation that is really unsustainable.”
And some health care workers in the US still lack adequate personal protective equipment and testing supplies, said emergency doctor Dr. Megan Ranney.
“We are very afraid of what we are getting into,” she said.
Hospital stays have risen nationwide – 35,072 were reported on Monday, and the daily number has risen relatively steadily from a low of about 28,600 on September 20.
13% more Covid-19 cases in children in 2 weeks
More children will be diagnosed with Covid-19, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.
The report looked at data from health departments in 49 states, New York City, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. Children accounted for about 10.7% of Covid-19 cases in the states reported cases by age.
The news comes that many schools are back to face-to-face teaching and facing the challenges that come with new infections.
There is no “one size fits all” strategy to get back to the classroom safely, Fauci said.
Decisions should be based on how widespread infections are in the community and how much surveillance is needed, Fauci said.
“When schools are prepared, when they have a plan, when everyone wears masks in general, when they test people on surveillance methods to get infected people out of the system, (and) they know what to do when they’re with one Faced with person who infects a child or older student – it can work, “he said.
A vaccination attempt is interrupted, but this is “entirely to be expected”.
While Americans wait for a safe and effective vaccine, Johnson & Johnson has suspended advanced clinical study of its experimental vaccine because of an unexplained disease in one of the volunteers, the company said.
The drug maker said Tuesday it did not immediately know whether the sick volunteer received the vaccine candidate or a placebo, and had little information about the disease itself.
Johnson & Johnson said it learned of the disease on Sunday and immediately notified the study’s independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB), which is reviewing the disease.
“It is by no means uncommon for unexpected diseases to appear in large studies over their duration,” and sometimes they have nothing to do with drug candidate Mathai Mammen, the global head of research at Johnson & Johnson’s Pharmaceutical Division, Janssen, in Tuesday’s statement of results Company for the third quarter.
As of Tuesday morning, the study was still blinded, meaning that neither those who administer the drugs or placebos directly, nor the volunteers, know which volunteers are receiving which elements of the study, Mammen said. The DSMB can “unblind” the study to examine the disease if necessary, he said.
That kind of pause doesn’t affect right away, said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health.
“The Johnson & Johnson study is the largest study of the vaccine I know – 60,000 people,” Jha said. “You would expect a few breaks within this process.”
Fauci said Tuesday that current vaccine development efforts were “on the right track” despite news from Johnson & Johnson.
“Some of the vaccines are close to being given information,” Fauci said during a call to the nation’s governors, according to audio of the call from CNN.
Fauci mentioned vaccines that were tested by Moderna and Pfizer. “We’re getting to a point where we’re almost able to have a first look at the data, which is a pre-determined thing that is done by the Data and Security Monitoring Committee,” he said.
The vaccination effort, in a broader sense, “is on a really good path,” he said. “We should know by November or December whether or not we have a safe and effective vaccine. … It is conceivable that we will even know by then.”
CNN’s Amanda Watts, Wes Bruer, Jen Christensen, Maggie Fox, Andrea Kane, Jason Hanna and Lauren Mascaren contributed to this report.